It seems that we need to record our statistic after monthly bonus until the new monthly bonus so we can have a better guess/estimation.

It's not difficult to find it, apart from email you can also check it based on your ticket every week and in my opinion we only need to collect at least 1 ticket every week to secure a normal bonus and for extra bonuses it is usually based on monthly losses. About your loss, you know you are not alone at least 3 users have confirmed here

I'm down almost $600 within last 30 days period. Looks like most of us (forum members) going through losing streak at Stake nowadays. Hopefully, our luck will turn around.
Today I have claimed $7 on the Stake Forum because I participated in the challenges last week and you know I made a profit of around $60 well, I often experience this if I play with a low balance, meanwhile if I play with enough balance, greed will come.
By the way if the monthly bonus out early next month, will they use previous statistics or they only calculate statistics based on the last 15 days? I just want to know if this scenario is applied on December 1.