Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Originally posted by on 08/12/2025, 20:15:10 UTC
Last rescrape: 1 day ago
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Showing 2 edited versions
Scraped on 08/12/2025, 20:45:33 UTC
So what is the consensus here, price goes up soon after the rate cut this week or not? There is always that one group of people for which every single event is always priced in, they are a funny bunch 
stock market goes down, bitcoin-unclear.
In short: it is just my opinion.
In somewhat longer explanation: because it is expected and because US stock indices are priced to perfection right now (CAPE 41-42) and because markets typically decline when Fed cuts due to the slowdown.
Even longer: when the third cut is the LAST one, stock market goes up in the next 12 mo; when the third cut is due to an economic weakness and a slowdown,then stocks typically fall...so the question is: do they cut because of the current weakness or not?
Maybe, maybe not...but they could say "it is likely the last" and then it would be bullish.
In the absence of such communication-bearish.
Scraped on 08/12/2025, 20:20:28 UTC
So what is the consensus here, price goes up soon after the rate cut this week or not? There is always that one group of people for which every single event is always priced in, they are a funny bunch
stock market goes down, bitcoin-unclear.
In short: it is just my opinion.
In somewhat longer explanation: because it is expected and because US stock indices are priced to perfection right now (CAPE 41-42) and because markets typically decline when Fed cuts due to the slowdown. Even longer: when the third cut is the LAST one, stock market goes up in the next 12 mo; when the third cut is due to an economic weakness and a slowdown,then stocks typically fall...so the question is; do they cut because of the current weakness?
Maybe, maybe not...but they could say "it is likely the last" and then it would be bullish. In the absence of such communication-bearish.
Original archived Re: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion
Scraped on 08/12/2025, 20:15:10 UTC
So what is the consensus here, price goes up soon after the rate cut this week or not? There is always that one group of people for which every single event is always priced in, they are a funny bunch
stock market goes down, bitcoin-unclear.
In short: it is just my opinion.
In somewhat longer explanation: because it is expected and because US stock indices are priced to perfection right now (CAPE 41-42).