I wouldn't be surprised, having observed Bitcoin's price movements, even though technical analysis isn't my field of expertise.
Same here
Based on past experiences, Bitcoin's price reached a significant percentage lower than its ATH in 2017 and 2021.
If the 2025 ATH is $126,000, I've found that a decline of over 50% is expected. This isn't a certainty, as we know that strong predictions can be refuted.
I believe that we are now at a crossroads and do not know how it will play out. On the one hand, there are those who say that cycles have changed and that with increased liquidity, 2026 will be bullish. On the other hand, there are those who argue that cycles as we understood them have not essentially changed, that we have already reached the peak of the cycle and that from now on winter will come, with scenarios such as the one proposed by the OP or the decline that you propose, more in the medium term.
I dare not venture anything.