Their chances of qualifying directly for the round of 16 are indeed wide open because if you look at the two remaining matches they will face easy opponents, the problem is they are not in a stable condition at the moment, this is the big question is whether they can get 6 points in two matches easily? Also consider that Monaco is currently ranked 19th where if they lose they will be dropped to 25th or below. Benfica has also put in a great effort in their last two matches, so I think Madrid will have a hard time in the remaining UCL matches.