Most likely, your friend's stable financial results are illusory and random. We all know Taleb's famous book, "Fooled by Randomness." This is precisely what it's about. Randomness can take bizarre forms, even becoming an illusion of financial stability. But believing in illusions always comes at a price. After "stability," a series of losses follows, and it's these losses that seem random, while gains seem predictable. Such is human psychology—we're more willing to believe in positive things.