I would want to believe this is a physical bet between you and some other person over a staked amount. If so, and you have this challenges i think it's a system error or it might as well be from your end. If truly you are good at the game, just as you said you should be able to know the controls you hold at that point where your goalkeeper comes out the goal post and try the same thing over and over again to identify the actual fault.
Or if this is beyond your capacity, I believe there should be a game coordinator in your place of gambling maybe he/she could help out with that.
If it is a physical gambling with another person playing the PS together, maybe it can be the pad but I do not think so, if it is the pad, he would have noticed while playing the game. If it is not the pad, it is very possible that his opponent is good than him is the reason by knowing the right thing to do which deceive the goalkeeper to do rubbish while the opponent was about to score and score. Some people are very good in PS.
I think there’s a setting for that, you can find it in the auto-goalkeeper behavior settings. If the game settings has the auto clearance or the auto run option turned on, then the goalkeeper would most likely run out aggressively in certain occasions, even when you didn’t initiate the command.
In order to resolve this, OP should try turning off the Assisted GK rush and switch the control to manual and then he’ll have full control. But if that doesn’t work, then he should try checking if his defensive line is too high, because is a player’s defensive line is very high, then the game would automatically make the goalkeeper to rush out more often if there are no much defenders in the box.